AI Market Watch · The money loop · Company

Nvidia: announce big, sign less, pay less still

Nvidia sells the chips the AI build-out runs on, and it has become one of the build-out's biggest backers too. Since September 2025 it has announced about $384bn of stakes, purchase commitments and guarantees. Here's how much of that is signed, how much has been paid, and how much of the money finds its way back to Nvidia.

Data checked to 3 November 2026

Where it sits

Nvidia sells the chips the rest of this build-out runs on. In the money loop it is at the start of the ribbons, and most of them point at companies that buy those chips. The rest of this page is the other half of that position: the money Nvidia has put in, how much of it is real, and how much comes back as orders.

The mechanism

Nvidia's deals follow a pattern. Each step is smaller than the one before, and the last one feeds the first.

  1. 1

    Announce the biggest number

    In September 2025 Nvidia said it would invest “up to” $100bn in OpenAI, a gigawatt at a time, and its stock closed at a record. In August 2026 it announced platforms to raise “over $500bn” for AI data centres, almost all of it other people’s money.

  2. 2

    Sign something smaller

    The $100bn letter became a $30bn stake. Groq, reported at about $20bn, is about $17bn in Nvidia’s own accounts. Of the $384bn announced, about $277bn is signed, and $109bn of that is guarantees that pay out only if someone defaults.

  3. 3

    Pay less still

    $61.5bn, roughly one dollar in six of the headline, can be confirmed as paid. Most of the rest is “up to”, contingent, not yet closed, or spread over six years.

  4. 4

    The money comes back as orders

    xAI’s vehicle uses its cash to buy Nvidia GPUs. IREN’s share rights vest as it takes delivery of Nvidia chips. The Ohio campus Nvidia guarantees will host only Nvidia compute. The AI clouds buy Nvidia’s systems, and Nvidia rents the capacity back.

Nvidia’s own 10-Q describes the AI cloud deals in one sentence: the clouds “procure our data center infrastructure products and we commit to cloud service agreements”.

Announced, signed, paid

Every investment, purchase commitment and guarantee Nvidia has announced since September 2025, sized by its headline figure. The outline is what was announced, the hatching is what has been signed, and the solid bar is what can be confirmed as paid.

Announced
$384bn
20 deals and pledges
Signed
$277bn
72% of the headline
Confirmed paid
$61.5bn
16% of the headline

  1. SB Energy and OpenAI, OhioAug 2026 · Lease guarantee

    Signed $105bn

    Nvidia pays only if OpenAI defaults on the leases for about 4.25GW of data centres in Ohio, and OpenAI indemnifies it. The campus will host only Nvidia compute.4,5

  2. OpenAI, 10GW letterSep 2025 · Letter of intent

    Non-binding $100bn

    “Up to” $100bn, a gigawatt at a time. It never became a contract, and in March 2026 Jensen Huang said it was “probably not in the cards”.1,8

  3. AI cloud partnersJul 2026 · Capacity it will rent back

    Signed $36bn

    The clouds buy Nvidia’s systems, and Nvidia commits to rent capacity from them for typically six years. Payments start next fiscal year. The partners aren’t named.4

  4. OpenAI, 2026 funding roundFeb 2026 · Equity

    Funded $30bn

    A priced stake that replaced the letter, with no gigawatt milestones. The last $10bn was reported paid in October 2026.6,7

  5. Cloud service agreementsJul 2026 · Capacity it rents

    Signed $29bn

    Multi-year cloud contracts for Nvidia’s own research, outstanding at July 2026; some predate 2025. Paid over time. The providers aren’t named, and probably include CoreWeave and Lambda.4

  6. GroqDec 2025 · Licence and hires

    Funded $20bn · $13bn paid

    Reported as about $20bn. Nvidia’s 10-K puts the total at about $17bn: $13bn paid at closing and $4bn due within a year.2,3

  7. Hugging FaceSep 2026 · Acquisition

    Signed $12.9bn

    $11.9bn plus up to $1bn to keep staff. Not expected to close until the first half of 2027, subject to regulators.9

  8. AnthropicNov 2025 · Equity

    Signed $10bn

    “Up to” $10bn. Anthropic’s February 2026 round included “a portion” of it; how much hasn’t been disclosed, so none is counted as paid.10,11

  9. Five listed partnersDec 2025 to Mar 2026 · Equity

    Funded $10bn

    $2bn each in Synopsys, Coherent, Lumentum, Nebius and Marvell, all confirmed in the companies’ own filings.12,13,14,15,16

  10. Poolside, 2026Aug 2026 · Licence and equity

    Signed $7bn

    A $6bn licence and $1bn of equity, reported from an investor letter. Nvidia hasn’t confirmed it.17

  11. IntelSep 2025 · Equity

    Funded $5bn

    214.8m shares at $23.28, closed in December 2025 after antitrust clearance.18

  12. Land, power and shellFrom Oct 2025 · Lease guarantees

    Signed $3.5bn

    Nvidia covers AI cloud partners’ data centre leases if they default, in return for warrants.4

  13. CorningMay 2026 · Warrants

    Signed $3.2bn · $0.5bn paid

    Nvidia paid $0.5bn for warrants. The other $2.7bn comes only if it exercises them at $180 a share.19

  14. UK AI start-upsSep 2025 · Pledge

    Non-binding $2.7bn

    £2bn, announced in a press release during the state visit. No matching commitment appears in any filing.20

  15. IRENMay 2026 · Share rights

    Signed $2.1bn

    Rights to buy up to 30m shares at $70, which vest as IREN takes delivery of Nvidia GPUs.21

  16. CoreWeaveJan 2026 · Equity

    Funded $2bn

    22.9m shares at $87.20. Separately, Nvidia has agreed to buy up to $6.3bn of capacity CoreWeave can’t sell.22

  17. xAI's chip vehicleOct 2025 · Equity

    Signed $2bn

    “Up to” $2bn in a vehicle whose cash buys Nvidia GPUs. The round closed, but Nvidia’s share wasn’t disclosed.23,24

  18. SB EnergyAug 2026 · Equity

    Signed $1.5bn

    Announced alongside the Ohio guarantee. No confirmation that it has closed.25

  19. NokiaOct 2025 · Equity

    Funded $1bn

    Share issue completed in November 2025, for a 2.9% stake.26

  20. Poolside, 2025Oct 2025 · Equity

    Non-binding $1bn

    “Up to” $1bn in a round Nvidia was reported to be leading. The round fell apart in April 2026.27

AnnouncedSignedConfirmed paid

Three things are left out of these totals. The "over $500bn" financing platforms are other firms' capital, under memoranda that aren't yet binding. Nvidia's $6.3bn agreement to buy CoreWeave's unsold capacity, and a reported $1.5bn to rent its own chips back from Lambda, are probably already inside the $29bn of cloud agreements in its filings. And Nvidia has joined rounds at Mistral and Crusoe without saying how much it put in.4,28

What's confirmed, and what isn't

What its own filings show

Nvidia's quarterly filings give the other side of the ledger: what its stakes in other companies are worth on its balance sheet. For two years they stayed in single-digit billions. Then they rose from $7bn in July 2025 to $96bn a year later, with listed stakes now worth almost as much as private ones. Part of that rise is gains on the shares, not new money: $36.9bn of the listed stakes can't yet be sold.4,29

OpenAI letter, Sep 20250$20bn$40bn$60bn$80bn$100bn$120bnApr ’23: private stakes $0.5bnApr ’23: listed stakes $0bnApr ’23Jul ’23: private stakes $0.7bnJul ’23: listed stakes $0.1bnJul ’23Oct ’23: private stakes $1bnOct ’23: listed stakes $0.2bnOct ’23Jan ’24: private stakes $1.3bnJan ’24: listed stakes $0.2bnJan ’24Apr ’24: private stakes $1.5bnApr ’24: listed stakes $0.3bnApr ’24Jul ’24: private stakes $1.8bnJul ’24: listed stakes $0.4bnJul ’24Oct ’24: private stakes $2.2bnOct ’24: listed stakes $0.5bnOct ’24Jan ’25: private stakes $3.4bnJan ’25: listed stakes $0.4bnJan ’25Apr ’25: private stakes $3.2bnApr ’25: listed stakes $1.3bnApr ’25Jul ’25: private stakes $3.8bnJul ’25: listed stakes $3.2bnJul ’25Oct ’25: private stakes $8.2bnOct ’25: listed stakes $3.9bnOct ’25Jan ’26: private stakes $22.3bnJan ’26: listed stakes $17.7bn$40bnJan ’26Apr ’26: private stakes $42.3bnApr ’26: listed stakes $39.1bn$81.4bnApr ’26Jul ’26: private stakes $47.9bnJul ’26: listed stakes $47.7bn$95.6bnJul ’26 OpenAI letter0$20bn$40bn$60bn$80bn$100bn$120bnApr ’23: private stakes $0.5bnApr ’23: listed stakes $0bnJul ’23: private stakes $0.7bnJul ’23: listed stakes $0.1bnJul ’23Oct ’23: private stakes $1bnOct ’23: listed stakes $0.2bnJan ’24: private stakes $1.3bnJan ’24: listed stakes $0.2bnApr ’24: private stakes $1.5bnApr ’24: listed stakes $0.3bnApr ’24Jul ’24: private stakes $1.8bnJul ’24: listed stakes $0.4bnOct ’24: private stakes $2.2bnOct ’24: listed stakes $0.5bnJan ’25: private stakes $3.4bnJan ’25: listed stakes $0.4bnJan ’25Apr ’25: private stakes $3.2bnApr ’25: listed stakes $1.3bnJul ’25: private stakes $3.8bnJul ’25: listed stakes $3.2bnOct ’25: private stakes $8.2bnOct ’25: listed stakes $3.9bnOct ’25Jan ’26: private stakes $22.3bnJan ’26: listed stakes $17.7bn$40Apr ’26: private stakes $42.3bnApr ’26: listed stakes $39.1bn$81Jul ’26: private stakes $47.9bnJul ’26: listed stakes $47.7bn$96Jul ’26
Listed stakes, at market valuePrivate stakes, at carrying value Nvidia's equity stakes at each quarter end, in billions of dollars, from its 10-Q and 10-K filings.29

The long view

Adjusted for share splits, Nvidia closed at $5.39 in the first week of 2018. It fell to $11.23 in the 2022 sell-off and closed at $16.88 the week ChatGPT launched. By the Friday before the OpenAI letter it had risen more than tenfold, to $176.67. Since then it has gained less than a fifth.30

Covid crashChatGPT launchesThe period charted below$0$50$100$150$200$25020192020202120222023202420252026$5.39$206.69 CovidChatGPTBelow$0$50$100$150$200$250’20’22’24’26$5.39$206.69
Nvidia weekly closing price since January 2018, adjusted for share splits.30

Timeline

The biggest numbers moved the stock most: the $100bn letter took it to a record, and the $500bn bookings claim added 5% in a day. The deals that replaced them, smaller and signed, didn't. The line is Nvidia's closing price every trading day from August 2025; each number is an event in the timeline that follows.1,30,31

$140$160$180$200$220$240$260Sep ’25Nov ’25Jan ’26Mar ’26May ’26Jul ’26Sep ’26Nov ’26$176.67: close before the $100bn letter1234567891011121314$206.69 $140$160$180$200$220$240$260Oct ’25Jan ’26Apr ’26Jul ’26Oct ’26$176.67: pre-letter1234567891011121314$206.69
Nvidia daily closing price. Numbers mark the events in the timeline below: hover over or tap one to see it, click to jump to it. An event on a weekend sits on the next trading day.30

  1. 18 Sep 2025

    NVDA $176.24

    $5bn for Intel

    Nvidia agrees to buy $5bn of Intel shares at $23.28 each. The deal closes in December, after US antitrust clearance.18

  2. 22 Sep 2025

    NVDA +3.9% to a record $183.61

    Up to $100bn for OpenAI

    Nvidia and OpenAI sign a letter of intent: Nvidia will invest “up to” $100bn “progressively as each gigawatt is deployed”, across at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for OpenAI. It’s a letter, not a contract.1,30

  3. 28 Oct 2025

    NVDA +5.0% to $201.03

    Half a trillion on the books

    At its Washington conference, Jensen Huang says Nvidia is on track for about $500bn of Blackwell and Rubin business through 2026. The next day Nvidia becomes the first company worth $5tn.30,31

  4. 18 Nov 2025

    Up to $10bn for Anthropic

    Nvidia commits “up to” $10bn to Anthropic, alongside Microsoft. In return, Anthropic commits to up to a gigawatt of compute on Nvidia’s Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems.10

  5. 24 Dec 2025

    Groq, for about $20bn

    Nvidia licenses Groq’s chip technology and hires its staff, in a deal reported at about $20bn. Its 10-K later puts the total at about $17bn: $13bn at closing and $4bn to come.2,3

  6. 27 Feb 2026

    NVDA −4.2% to $177.19

    $30bn replaces the $100bn

    Nvidia invests $30bn in OpenAI’s new funding round: a priced stake, with no gigawatt milestones attached. The stock falls on the day.6,30

  7. 4 Mar 2026

    "Probably not in the cards"

    Huang says the $30bn “might be the last” time Nvidia invests in OpenAI, and that the $100bn is “probably not in the cards”.8

  8. 16 Mar 2026

    NVDA +1.7% to $183.22

    At least $1 trillion

    At its California conference, Huang raises the claim: at least $1tn of orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin through 2027.30,32

  9. 10 Aug 2026

    NVDA −2.9% to $217.55

    "Over $500bn" of other people's money

    Nvidia signs memoranda with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to raise over $500bn for AI data centres. The capital is theirs, and the agreements are subject to final contracts.28,30

  10. 17 Aug 2026

    Up to $105bn of guarantees for OpenAI

    Nvidia guarantees SB Energy’s leases to OpenAI for about 4.25GW of data centres in Ohio, capped at $105bn, and says it will invest $1.5bn in SB Energy. The campus will host only Nvidia compute.5,25

  11. 26 Aug 2026

    $99bn of stakes on the books

    Nvidia’s 10-Q puts its equity investments at $99bn, with $25bn more committed, plus $36bn of six-year commitments to rent capacity back from the AI clouds it sells to.4

  12. 3 Sep 2026

    NVDA +1.8% to $228.45

    Hugging Face, for up to $12.9bn

    Nvidia agrees to buy Hugging Face for $11.9bn, plus up to $1bn to keep its staff. It isn’t expected to close until the first half of 2027.9,30

  13. 6 Oct 2026

    NVDA record close $239.24

    The high

    Nvidia closes at a record $239.24.30

  14. 3 Nov 2026

    NVDA $206.69, today

    Where it stands today

    Nvidia closes at $206.69, 13.6% below its October record and 12.6% above where it closed on the day of the $100bn letter.30

Why it matters for the loop

In the money loop, Nvidia is at the start of ten ribbons, and most of them point at companies that buy its chips. Its money is real: $61.5bn can be confirmed as paid. But the figures that moved its stock were the biggest ones, and they are the least likely to be paid. The money that is paid often comes back as orders for Nvidia's chips. That supports Nvidia's own revenue, and through the guarantees it means Nvidia, the strongest company in the loop, is now carrying some of its customers' risk.4,5

Sources

  1. NVIDIA Newsroom: OpenAI and NVIDIA announce strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems (22 September 2025)
  2. CNBC: Nvidia buying AI chip startup Groq's assets for about $20 billion in its largest deal on record (24 December 2025)
  3. NVIDIA (SEC filing): Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 25 January 2026: Groq transaction (25 February 2026)
  4. NVIDIA (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 July 2026: equity investments, commitments and guarantees (26 August 2026)
  5. NVIDIA (SEC filing): Form 8-K: residual value guaranties with SB Energy, PORTS Technology Campus, Ohio (17 August 2026)
  6. OpenAI (announcement): Scaling AI for everyone (27 February 2026)
  7. The Information: Nvidia, SoftBank make final $20 billion investment in OpenAI's last round (1 October 2026)
  8. CNBC: Nvidia CEO Huang says $30 billion OpenAI investment 'might be the last' (4 March 2026)
  9. NVIDIA (SEC filing): Form 8-K: agreement to acquire Hugging Face (3 September 2026)
  10. Anthropic (announcement): Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Anthropic partnerships (18 November 2025)
  11. Anthropic (announcement): Anthropic raises $30 billion Series G at $380 billion post-money valuation (12 February 2026)
  12. Synopsys (SEC filing): Form 8-K: sale of common stock to NVIDIA (1 December 2025)
  13. Coherent (SEC filing): Form 8-K: NVIDIA investment agreement (2 March 2026)
  14. Lumentum (SEC filing): Form 8-K: convertible preferred stock issued to NVIDIA (2 March 2026)
  15. Nebius (SEC filing): Form 6-K: pre-funded warrant issued to NVIDIA (11 March 2026)
  16. Marvell (SEC filing): Form 8-K: convertible preferred stock issued to NVIDIA (31 March 2026)
  17. Bloomberg: Nvidia to pay AI startup Poolside a $6 billion license, newcomer says (21 August 2026)
  18. Intel (SEC filing): Form 8-K: closing of the NVIDIA share purchase (26 December 2025)
  19. Corning (SEC filing): Form 8-K: warrants issued to NVIDIA (6 May 2026)
  20. NVIDIA Investor Relations: NVIDIA announces £2 billion investment in the United Kingdom AI startup ecosystem (18 September 2025)
  21. Reuters: Nvidia to invest up to $2.1 billion in IREN as part of AI data center deal (7 May 2026)
  22. CoreWeave (SEC filing): Form 8-K: sale of Class A common stock to NVIDIA (23 January 2026)
  23. PitchBook (citing Bloomberg): Nvidia adds xAI to its growing AI venture portfolio as part of $20B round (8 October 2025)
  24. DatacenterDynamics: Nvidia to invest in xAI special purpose vehicle, cash to be used to buy Nvidia GPUs (8 October 2025)
  25. NVIDIA Newsroom: NVIDIA guarantees SB Energy's PORTS-Pike Technology Campus in Ohio to exclusively host NVIDIA AI compute (17 August 2026)
  26. Nokia (announcement): Directed share issuance to NVIDIA completed (13 November 2025)
  27. DatacenterDynamics: Poolside seeks partners for data center in Texas after CoreWeave deal falls apart (2 April 2026)
  28. NVIDIA Investor Relations: NVIDIA partners with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to mobilise over $500 billion of third-party capital (10 August 2026)
  29. NVIDIA (SEC filings): 10-Q and 10-K filings, April 2023 to July 2026: non-marketable and publicly held equity securities (26 August 2026)
  30. Yahoo Finance: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock historical prices (3 November 2026)
  31. Fortune: Nvidia is officially the world's first $5 trillion company. CEO Jensen Huang says it's on track for 'half a trillion dollars' in revenue (29 October 2025)
  32. CNBC: Nvidia GTC 2026: CEO Jensen Huang sees $1 trillion in orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin through '27 (16 March 2026)

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