OpenAI: $710bn of signed compute on a $50bn revenue run-rate

The mechanism

OpenAI's strategy relies on other companies financing the capacity it needs. Each step below involves a different set of partners, and most of them appear elsewhere on these pages.

What it has signed

The signed contracts for cloud compute that we can find, sized by their headline figure. They come to about $710bn. The Stargate figure of $500bn isn't included, because it's a plan and the Oracle contract is part of it. Nor are the Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom arrangements, which are measured in gigawatts rather than dollars. We haven't found any figure for how much of these contracts OpenAI has paid so far.^1,2

Signed cloud compute

$710bn

four suppliers, some "up to"

Annualised revenue, September

$50bn

reported by CNBC, after a $68bn figure circulated

Commitments per $1 of run-rate

$14

a ratio of two different measures

1. Oracle, StargateSep 2025 · Cloud compute

   Signed $300bn

   OpenAI calls it a partnership that “exceeds $300 billion” over five years, starting in 2027. Oracle’s filings don’t name OpenAI. S&P estimates OpenAI is roughly half of Oracle’s $638bn backlog.^2,3,29

2. Microsoft AzureOct 2025 · Cloud compute

   Signed $250bn

   “An incremental $250 billion of Azure services”, on no disclosed timetable. Microsoft booked $10.0bn of revenue from OpenAI in the September quarter, but that includes revenue-share payments and isn’t split out.^6,7

3. Amazon Web ServicesNov 2025 and Feb 2026 · Cloud compute

   Signed $138bn

   $38bn over seven years, then expanded by $100bn over eight. Amazon has also invested $50bn in OpenAI, below.^8,9

4. CoreWeaveMar to Sep 2025 · Cloud compute

   Signed $22.4bn

   “Up to” about $22.4bn across three contracts. The September 2025 order alone is up to $6.5bn through May 2031.^11,12

AnnouncedSigned

The ratio compares contracts that run for many years with a single run-rate, so it's a scale rather than a measure of risk. The Oracle contract starts in 2027, and the Azure commitment has no stated timetable. But it shows what has to happen to revenue for the contracts to be paid for. OpenAI's own projections, reported by the Financial Times, are cash burn of $278bn between 2026 and 2030.^25,26

What's confirmed, and what isn't

• Microsoft owns about 24%In the filings

  Microsoft's 10-Q says so, "on an as-converted basis". It was about 27% when OpenAI restructured in October 2025. It recorded $10.0bn of revenue from OpenAI in the September quarter and is owed $7.2bn.^5,7

• $80bn of the $122bn is confirmed paidIn the filings

  Amazon paid $50bn and SoftBank $30bn, both confirmed by the investors. Nvidia's $30bn is reported paid. The other $12bn isn't disclosed.^17,18,19

• OpenAI's accountsReported

  OpenAI doesn't publish them. Leaked 2025 accounts reported revenue of $13.07bn and a $20.92bn operating loss. Reuters, citing The Information, put first-quarter 2026 revenue at $5.7bn and cash burn at $3.7bn. The Wall Street Journal put the second quarter's revenue at $6.7bn.^22,23,24

• The current round is shortReported

  The FT reports the target cut to about $20bn from $30bn, and the valuation sought to $1.25tn from $1.4tn. The Wall Street Journal reports about $11bn raised.^27,28

• The IPOIn the filings

  OpenAI submitted a confidential S-1 in June. Reuters reports Altman saying it won't list in 2026.^20,21

What its investors have paid

The 2026 round closed with $122bn committed at an $852bn valuation. The three biggest investors are also big suppliers to OpenAI. Amazon sells it cloud capacity ($138bn signed), Nvidia sells the chips that capacity runs on, and Microsoft sells Azure.^13,14

1. AmazonFeb 2026 · Equity

   Funded $50bn

   $15.0bn in the first quarter, $13.7bn in the second and the remaining $21.3bn in the third, all confirmed in Amazon’s 10-Qs. $35bn of it was conditional on milestones or an IPO when announced.^16,17

2. SoftBankFeb 2026 · Equity

   Funded $30bn

   $10bn on each of 1 April, 1 July and 1 October. The last was paid from a bond issue. SoftBank’s total investment is $64.6bn, about 13% of OpenAI.¹⁸

3. NvidiaFeb 2026 · Equity

   Funded $30bn

   Replaced the “up to $100bn” letter of intent. CNBC reports Nvidia “contributed $30 billion”. Neither company has confirmed the payment in a filing.^13,19

4. Other investorsFeb to Mar 2026 · Equity

   Signed $12bn

   The round closed at $122bn committed, $12bn more than the three above. It includes over $3bn from individuals. How much has been paid isn’t disclosed.¹⁴

5. Microsoft, earlier roundsTo Sep 2026 · Equity

   Funded $13bn · $12bn paid

   Total funding commitments of $13.0bn, of which $12.0bn had been funded by 30 September 2026.⁷

CommittedSignedConfirmed paid

That the money comes from suppliers doesn't make it any less real: Amazon's $50bn is in Amazon's accounts. But some of it comes back as revenue for the investors, and the filings don't say how much.^7,17

Who it falls on if OpenAI can't pay

OpenAI's contracts sit behind partners who borrowed to build the capacity. Their credit measures moved in October. We've listed what each partner or rating agency has said, without attributing the moves to OpenAI alone.

The structure

Since the October 2025 recapitalisation OpenAI Group is a public benefit corporation. The OpenAI Foundation holds 26% of it, worth about $130bn at the time, plus a warrant for more if the share price rises more than tenfold after 15 years. Microsoft held about 27% at the time. The remaining 47% belongs to current and former employees and investors. Under the Microsoft agreement, a declaration of AGI by OpenAI has to be verified by an independent expert panel.^5,15

Timeline

OpenAI isn't listed, so there's no share price for it. The timeline is the deals, the rounds and the reaction among its partners.

1. 1

   21 Jan 2025

   Stargate announced

   OpenAI and partners say they intend to invest $500bn over four years, and will “begin deploying $100 billion immediately”. It’s a plan rather than a contract.¹

2. 2

   10 Sep 2025

   Oracle, $300bn

   The Wall Street Journal reports that OpenAI has signed to buy $300bn of computing power from Oracle over about five years, starting in 2027. OpenAI later says the partnership “exceeds $300 billion”.^2,3

3. 3

   22 Sep 2025

   Nvidia, up to $100bn

   Nvidia and OpenAI sign a letter of intent for at least 10 gigawatts, with Nvidia investing “up to” $100bn. It’s replaced in February 2026 by a $30bn stake.⁴

4. 4

   28 Oct 2025

   Recapitalisation, and $250bn of Azure

   OpenAI completes its restructuring. Microsoft’s stake is valued at about $135bn, roughly 27%, and OpenAI contracts to buy an incremental $250bn of Azure services.^5,6

5. 5

   3 Nov 2025

   Amazon, $38bn, and the $1.4tn claim

   OpenAI signs a $38bn, seven-year agreement with AWS. Reuters reports it has “committed to spending $1.4 trillion to develop 30 gigawatts of computing resources”.^8,10

6. 6

   27 Feb 2026

   $110bn round, and $100bn more of AWS

   OpenAI announces $110bn of new investment at a $730bn pre-money valuation: $50bn from Amazon, $30bn from SoftBank and $30bn from Nvidia. The same day its AWS agreement is expanded by $100bn over eight years.^9,13

7. 7

   31 Mar 2026

   $852bn valuation

   The round closes at $122bn

   OpenAI closes the round with $122bn committed, at a post-money valuation of $852bn, and expands its undrawn credit facility to about $4.7bn.¹⁴

8. 8

   8 Jun 2026

   A confidential S-1

   OpenAI says it has submitted a confidential draft S-1 to the SEC, and “has not decided on timing yet”.²⁰

9. 9

   9 Jul 2026

   S&P cuts Oracle

   S&P lowers Oracle to BBB- from BBB, citing its exposure to OpenAI and its capital spending.²⁹

10. 10

    17 Aug 2026

    Nvidia guarantees up to $105bn

    Nvidia guarantees leases for about 4.25 gigawatts of OpenAI’s data centres in Ohio, capped at $105bn. OpenAI agrees to reimburse it for anything it pays.³³

11. 11

    12 Sep 2026

    No IPO in 2026

    Reuters reports Sam Altman saying OpenAI will not go public in 2026, and that “right now would be an ill-advised moment to go public”.²¹

12. 12

    1 Oct 2026

    SoftBank completes its $30bn

    SoftBank pays the third $10bn tranche, from a bond issue. Its total investment in OpenAI is $64.6bn, about 13%.¹⁸

13. 13

    8 Oct 2026

    $50bn run-rate, not $68bn

    CNBC reports OpenAI’s annualised revenue was roughly $50bn at the end of September, below a $68bn figure that had circulated. Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave shares fall.²⁵

14. 14

    15 Oct 2026

    Credit insurance spikes

    Five-year default swaps on Oracle reach a record 288 basis points, SoftBank’s reach 424, and CoreWeave’s pass 1,000.^30,31

15. 15

    28 Oct 2026

    Microsoft's 10-Q

    Microsoft says it owns about 24% of OpenAI on an as-converted basis, and recorded $10.0bn of revenue from commercial arrangements with OpenAI in the quarter. It is owed $7.2bn.⁷

16. 16

    30 Oct 2026

    Reported

    The next round shrinks

    The Financial Times reports OpenAI has cut its fundraising target to about $20bn, from $30bn, and its desired valuation to $1.25tn from $1.4tn. The Wall Street Journal reports about $11bn secured so far.^27,28

Why it matters for the loop

In the money loop, OpenAI is at the centre of the ribbons: it receives money from Amazon, SoftBank and Nvidia, and spends it, and more, on Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon and CoreWeave. The signed contracts are about 14 times its reported run-rate revenue. The partners that built capacity for it have borrowed, and some now carry the credit stress that S&P linked to it. If OpenAI's revenue grows as it projects, the loop closes. If it doesn't, the cost lands first on Oracle and the lenders behind it, and on Nvidia, which has guaranteed some of the leases.^29,33

Sources

1. OpenAI (announcement): Announcing the Stargate Project (21 January 2025)
2. OpenAI (announcement): OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank expand Stargate with five new AI data center sites (23 September 2025)
3. The Wall Street Journal: Oracle, OpenAI sign $300 billion cloud deal (10 September 2025)
4. NVIDIA Newsroom: OpenAI and NVIDIA announce strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems (22 September 2025)
5. OpenAI (announcement): The Next Chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI Partnership (28 October 2025)
6. Microsoft (SEC filing): Form 10-Q, September 2025 quarter: OpenAI's $250bn Azure commitment (29 October 2025)
7. Microsoft (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (28 October 2026)
8. OpenAI (announcement): AWS and OpenAI announce multi-year strategic partnership (3 November 2025)
9. OpenAI (announcement): OpenAI and Amazon announce strategic partnership (27 February 2026)
10. Reuters: OpenAI, Amazon strike $38 billion agreement for ChatGPT maker to use AWS (3 November 2025)
11. CoreWeave (press release): CoreWeave expands agreement with OpenAI by up to $6.5B (25 September 2025)
12. CoreWeave (SEC filing): Form 8-K: OpenAI order form of up to $6.5bn, September 2025 (25 September 2025)
13. OpenAI (announcement): Scaling AI for everyone (27 February 2026)
14. OpenAI (announcement): Accelerating the next phase of AI (31 March 2026)
15. OpenAI: Our Structure (3 November 2026)
16. Amazon (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 March 2026 (30 April 2026)
17. Amazon (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (30 October 2026)
18. SoftBank Group (press release): Execution of Follow-on Investment (Third Tranche) in OpenAI (1 October 2026)
19. CNBC: Nvidia and OpenAI in talks for up to $250 billion backstop to fund AI infrastructure plans (27 July 2026)
20. OpenAI (announcement): Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC (8 June 2026)
21. Reuters: OpenAI IPO will not happen in 2026, Altman says (12 September 2026)
22. Where's Your Ed At (leaked accounts): Exclusive: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting $34 Billion (16 June 2026)
23. Reuters (citing The Information): OpenAI burned $3.7 billion in first quarter of 2026, The Information reports (16 June 2026)
24. The Wall Street Journal: OpenAI's second-quarter sales show tepid growth compared with Anthropic (18 August 2026)
25. CNBC: Nvidia, Oracle, other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report (8 October 2026)
26. Reuters (citing the Financial Times): OpenAI expects to burn through almost $280 billion by 2030, FT reports (18 September 2026)
27. Investing.com (Reuters, citing the Financial Times): OpenAI slashes funding target by $10 billion amid tech rout (30 October 2026)
28. The Wall Street Journal: OpenAI raises less than half of $30 billion target in latest round (30 October 2026)
29. S&P Global Ratings: Research Update: Oracle Corp. Downgraded To 'BBB-' (9 July 2026)
30. The Economic Times (Reuters): AI credit default swap spreads widen sharply (15 October 2026)
31. CNBC: CoreWeave credit default swaps hit distress levels as investors sour on AI debt (15 October 2026)
32. S&P Global Ratings: SoftBank Group Corp. Outlook Revised To Negative (3 March 2026)
33. NVIDIA (SEC filing): Form 8-K: residual value guaranties with SB Energy, PORTS Technology Campus, Ohio (17 August 2026)